Dissection of skewed reality when analyzing behavior, motive and actions
Sunday, March 29, 2009
IS FIAT CURRENCY TRASH?
I believe that inflation is already here, and the economy is only "maybe" in a bottoming mode right now. In Canada, Gold has already hit a new high of over $1,200.00cnd an ounce. Also, our food prices have already gone up 20% over the last 6 months all the while gas prices have come down by 40%. Where do you think food prices are going, when oil and gas prices move up again? Thats right, higher! And if you think the lack luster US economy will keep gas prices down, just ask China and India about that. If you look at other currency's around the world, Gold has already hit new highs. It's just not reflected in the US currency right now, because it is artificially stronger then most other currency's and is not a true refection of what is the price of Gold right now. Gold has already skyrocketed up in the last 6 months and most people don't even see it. If you have read the book Rich Dad's Advisors: Guide to Investing In Gold and Silver, and use just one of the many analogies to price out the value of Gold, like how many ounces of Gold it takes to purchase the Dow? Well, in the book it stated that in 1980 one ounce of Gold could buy the Dow average. In October 2007 the Dow was at $14,000.00 and Gold was at about $825/oz so it would have taken about 17 ounces of Gold to buy the Dow. Well on March 9th Gold was at $900.00/oz and the Dow was $6,440.00 with a ratio of 7.16 ounces of Gold to buy the Dow. Now I don't know if Gold will every have the ratio of 1/1 on the Dow like it did in 1980, but this goes to show you how you can be fixed on the price of Gold in US funds and think that Gold has not moved much in value since it broke over a $1,000.00oz over a year ago. With out moving hardly at all in price in US funds, the value of Gold has increased over 20% - 120% relatively to other value systems around the world. Try Gold and Oil?
So the question now is, when the equity markets start their way up in another bull market in the next 4-6 or 8-12 months from now and the US dollar looses its luster, will Gold go up to close in on the value of the Dow? I don't know, it my do most of that by the Dow coming down even more before it goes back up. Just remember one thing, many an analyst have said "it's doesn't happen the way you think it will happen or when you think it may happen, it may already have happened and just when you think it's about to happen, it's done happening". There's no doubt that inflation will continue to climb and do so for the foreseeable future. But, I think that a serious point that has been missed in regards to fiat currency. Fiat currency is in a sense supported by the people for the people. Ask any Gold bug or Silver bug and read any book on stability of fiat currency, and a lot of it comes down to peoples confidence in their own currency. How many people do you know want to rise up and start a revolution on the bases that they are tired of the fiat currency system, and want a real money base type currency that is pegged to Gold or Silver. At the end of the day not many, and even less if they had to give up their free spending ways. There is, little doubt in my mind that the fiat currency system will fail at some point in the future, but when?. In the next 10 years or 20 -30 years? Or maybe longer? If and when it does, it wont go down without a fight, and it might surprise you, that the biggest opponent of the fait currency failing will not be the Rich, it will be the people. Because nobody wants to relive the 1930s, and most everybody likes living in a Matrix.